Vance County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 48th
Vance County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 48.4, 48th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Vance County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 48.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 48th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $168K in expected annual loss and about 7.11 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.14 events per year; and drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $375K in expected annual loss and about 16.88 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 43K.
Beyond physical exposure, Vance County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Vance County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 12 for hurricane events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Vance County ranks #79 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Medium | 7.11 / yr | $168K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.14 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | Medium | 16.88 / yr | $375K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.37 / yr | $527K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.11 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Low | 3.61 / yr | $241K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $273K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.36 / yr | $5M |
| Lightning | Low | 45.92 / yr | $189K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.55 / yr | $66K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.68 / yr | $620K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.28 / yr | $329K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.17 / yr | $130 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Vance County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (12), Snowstorm (3), Tropical Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| January 2019 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Michael |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Vance County?
Vance County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 48.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 48th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Vance County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Medium, $168K EAL), Hurricane (Low, $1M EAL), Drought (Medium, $375K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Vance County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Vance County ranks #79 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Vance County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Vance County since 1977, most often 12 for hurricane events and 3 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Vance County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.