Swain County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 49th
Swain County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 49.1, 49th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $10M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Swain County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 49.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 49th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $305K in expected annual loss and about 2.26 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 3.80 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $150K in expected annual loss and about 0.32 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $10M in expected annual loss for a population of 14K.
Beyond physical exposure, Swain County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Swain County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1993, including 6 for hurricane events and 2 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Swain County ranks #77 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 2.26 / yr | $305K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 3.80 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.32 / yr | $150K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $341K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.89 / yr | $6M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $53K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $70K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 3.70 / yr | $340K |
| Lightning | Low | 56.35 / yr | $116K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 22.35 / yr | $25K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.19 / yr | $426K |
| Drought | Very Low | 33.32 / yr | $15K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.63 / yr | $58K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Swain County has received 17 federal disaster declarations since 1993, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (6), Fire (2), Tropical Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Fire | Sam Davis Road Fire |
| March 2025 | Fire | Alarka Fire |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| May 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 17 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Swain County?
Swain County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 49.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 49th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Swain County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $305K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $2M EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $150K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Swain County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Swain County ranks #77 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Swain County had?
FEMA records 17 federal disaster declarations for Swain County since 1993, most often 6 for hurricane events and 2 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Swain County's $10M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.