Avery County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 47th
Avery County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 47.5, 47th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Avery County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 47.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 47th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $205K in expected annual loss and about 0.77 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $408K in expected annual loss and about 52.72 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $188K in expected annual loss and about 0.73 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 18K.
Beyond physical exposure, Avery County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Avery County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 9 for hurricane events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Avery County ranks #80 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | Medium | 0.77 / yr | $205K |
| Lightning | Medium | 52.72 / yr | $408K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.73 / yr | $188K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.14 / yr | $8M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 4.97 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $180K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $224K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.76 / yr | $309K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.07 / yr | $601K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $14K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 25.81 / yr | $24K |
| Hail | Very Low | 4.03 / yr | $80K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 24.83 / yr | $0 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Avery County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (9), Flood (4), Tropical Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| September 2021 | Hurricane | Remnants of Tropical Storm Fred |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Avery County?
Avery County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 47.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 47th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Avery County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (Medium, $205K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $408K EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $188K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Avery County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Avery County ranks #80 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Avery County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Avery County since 1977, most often 9 for hurricane events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Avery County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.