Orange County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 79th
Orange County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 79.1, 79th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $50M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Orange County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 79.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 79th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Orange County's expected losses come from winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $373K in expected annual loss and about 7.42 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $33M in expected annual loss and about 1.29 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 47.15 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $50M in expected annual loss for a population of 149K.
Beyond physical exposure, Orange County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Orange County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 12 for hurricane events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Orange County ranks #37 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 7.42 / yr | $373K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.29 / yr | $33M |
| Lightning | High | 47.15 / yr | $1M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 4.84 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.11 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.15 / yr | $5M |
| Hail | Medium | 4.43 / yr | $906K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.57 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.80 / yr | $331K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $744K |
| Drought | Low | 15.49 / yr | $249K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.17 / yr | $911 |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.68 / yr | $691K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $16K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Orange County has received 26 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (12), Severe Ice Storm (3), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2025 | Tropical Depression | Tropical Depression Chantal |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| January 2019 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Michael |
Showing the 10 most recent of 26 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Orange County?
Orange County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 79.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 79th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Orange County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $373K EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $33M EAL), Lightning (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Orange County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Orange County ranks #37 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Orange County had?
FEMA records 26 federal disaster declarations for Orange County since 1977, most often 12 for hurricane events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Orange County's $50M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.