Randolph County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 81th
Randolph County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 80.6, 81th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $39M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Randolph County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 80.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 81st national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Randolph County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $800K in expected annual loss and about 1.82 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 0.32 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $275K in expected annual loss and about 7.79 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $39M in expected annual loss for a population of 144K.
Beyond physical exposure, Randolph County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Randolph County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 12 for hurricane events and 2 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Randolph County ranks #35 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 1.82 / yr | $800K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.32 / yr | $5M |
| Winter Weather | High | 7.79 / yr | $275K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.64 / yr | $23M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.10 / yr | $3M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.68 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 4.64 / yr | $624K |
| Lightning | Medium | 48.68 / yr | $439K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.80 / yr | $4K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.21 / yr | $670K |
| Drought | Low | 17.71 / yr | $307K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.92 / yr | $633K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $24K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Randolph County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (12), Tropical Storm (2), Severe Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| May 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| January 2019 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Michael |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Randolph County?
Randolph County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 80.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 81th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Randolph County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $800K EAL), Tornado (Medium, $5M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $275K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Randolph County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Randolph County ranks #35 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Randolph County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Randolph County since 1977, most often 12 for hurricane events and 2 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Randolph County's $39M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.