Alamance County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 77th
Alamance County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 77.1, 77th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $41M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Alamance County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 77.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 77th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Alamance County's expected losses come from winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $401K in expected annual loss and about 7.89 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $627K in expected annual loss and about 1.82 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $27M in expected annual loss and about 1.25 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $41M in expected annual loss for a population of 171K.
Beyond physical exposure, Alamance County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Alamance County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 12 for hurricane events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Alamance County ranks #39 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 7.89 / yr | $401K |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.82 / yr | $627K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.25 / yr | $27M |
| Lightning | High | 46.88 / yr | $911K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.16 / yr | $5M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.11 / yr | $3M |
| Hail | Medium | 4.52 / yr | $867K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.53 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.71 / yr | $729K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.68 / yr | $1M |
| Drought | Low | 15.66 / yr | $151K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $17K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.20 / yr | $336 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Alamance County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (12), Severe Ice Storm (3), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2025 | Tropical Depression | Tropical Depression Chantal |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| January 2019 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Michael |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Alamance County?
Alamance County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 77.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 77th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Alamance County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $401K EAL), Ice Storm (High, $627K EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $27M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Alamance County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Alamance County ranks #39 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Alamance County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Alamance County since 1977, most often 12 for hurricane events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Alamance County's $41M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.