Lincoln County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 74th
Lincoln County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 73.8, 74th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $32M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Lincoln County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 73.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 74th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.68 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $23M in expected annual loss and about 0.89 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.13 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $32M in expected annual loss for a population of 87K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lincoln County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Lincoln County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 7 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Lincoln County ranks #44 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 1.68 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 0.89 / yr | $23M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.13 / yr | $4M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | Medium | 51.68 / yr | $637K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.45 / yr | $977K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.06 / yr | $370K |
| Hail | Low | 5.29 / yr | $324K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.28 / yr | $1K |
| Drought | Low | 29.98 / yr | $95K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.42 / yr | $756K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 1.32 / yr | $223K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 6.01 / yr | $44K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $22K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lincoln County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (7), Snowstorm (4), Tropical Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| October 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lincoln County?
Lincoln County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 73.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 74th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lincoln County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $1M EAL), Riverine Flood (Medium, $23M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lincoln County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Lincoln County ranks #44 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lincoln County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Lincoln County since 1974, most often 7 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lincoln County's $32M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.