Harnett County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 75th
Harnett County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 75.3, 75th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $37M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Harnett County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 75.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 75th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Harnett County's expected losses come from hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 0.21 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $6M in expected annual loss and about 0.32 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 8.26 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $37M in expected annual loss for a population of 133K.
Beyond physical exposure, Harnett County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Harnett County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1968, including 12 for hurricane events and 2 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Harnett County ranks #43 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.21 / yr | $7M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.32 / yr | $6M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 8.26 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 5.05 / yr | $268K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.36 / yr | $432K |
| Lightning | Medium | 51.63 / yr | $725K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.00 / yr | $17M |
| Hail | Low | 4.15 / yr | $587K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $178K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $674K |
| Drought | Medium | 13.37 / yr | $417K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 1.44 / yr | $791K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.47 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.17 / yr | $1K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Harnett County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1968, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (12), Tropical Storm (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Harnett County?
Harnett County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 75.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 75th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Harnett County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Medium, $7M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $6M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Harnett County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Harnett County ranks #43 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Harnett County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Harnett County since 1968, most often 12 for hurricane events and 2 for tropical storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Harnett County's $37M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.