Surry County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 74th
Surry County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 73.6, 74th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and strong wind exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $27M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Surry County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 73.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 74th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Surry County's expected losses come from cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 0.74 events per year; strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 2.72 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $445K in expected annual loss and about 1.33 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $27M in expected annual loss for a population of 71K.
Beyond physical exposure, Surry County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Surry County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 8 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Surry County ranks #46 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 0.74 / yr | $7M |
| Strong Wind | High | 2.72 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.33 / yr | $445K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.04 / yr | $15M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.21 / yr | $8K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.04 / yr | $574K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $645K |
| Drought | Medium | 13.27 / yr | $343K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.14 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 7.95 / yr | $73K |
| Hail | Low | 4.88 / yr | $303K |
| Lightning | Low | 50.10 / yr | $226K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $11K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.37 / yr | $64K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Surry County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (8), Snowstorm (4), Tropical Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Helene |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| January 2019 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Michael |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Surry County?
Surry County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 73.6 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 74th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Surry County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $7M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $1M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $445K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Surry County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Surry County ranks #46 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Surry County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Surry County since 1977, most often 8 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Surry County's $27M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.