Guilford County, North Carolina Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NC
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 93th
Guilford County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 93.4, 93th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and riverine flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $135M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Guilford County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 93.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 93rd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.87 events per year; riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at High risk — $101M in expected annual loss and about 3.14 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $795K in expected annual loss and about 8.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $135M in expected annual loss for a population of 541K.
Beyond physical exposure, Guilford County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Guilford County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 12 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 100 North Carolina counties, Guilford County ranks #8 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.87 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 3.14 / yr | $101M |
| Winter Weather | High | 8.00 / yr | $795K |
| Lightning | High | 47.07 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 4.75 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.09 / yr | $8M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.23 / yr | $6M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 0.68 / yr | $6M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $4M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 1.79 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.25 / yr | $922K |
| Drought | Medium | 17.91 / yr | $441K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.38 / yr | $3K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $32K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Guilford County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (12), Snowstorm (4), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| September 2024 | Tropical Storm | Hurricane Helene |
| August 2024 | Tropical Storm | Tropical Storm Debby |
| October 2022 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ian |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Isaias |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2019 | Hurricane | Hurricane Dorian |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
| September 2018 | Hurricane | Hurricane Florence |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Guilford County?
Guilford County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 93.4 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 93th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Guilford County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL), Riverine Flood (High, $101M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $795K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Guilford County compare to other North Carolina counties?
Guilford County ranks #8 of 100 North Carolina counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Guilford County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Guilford County since 1977, most often 12 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Guilford County's $135M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.