Seneca County, New York Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NY
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 42th
Seneca County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 41.8, 42th national percentile), driven primarily by drought and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $10M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Seneca County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 41.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 42nd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in drought (extended dry periods that stress water supplies and agriculture) at Medium risk — $462K in expected annual loss and about 2.52 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $161K in expected annual loss and about 0.74 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Low risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 0.54 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $10M in expected annual loss for a population of 34K.
Beyond physical exposure, Seneca County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Seneca County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 2 for biological events and 2 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 62 New York counties, Seneca County ranks #55 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Drought | Medium | 2.52 / yr | $462K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.74 / yr | $161K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.54 / yr | $8M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.02 / yr | $146K |
| Hail | Low | 1.89 / yr | $227K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $176K |
| Lightning | Low | 29.86 / yr | $94K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 3.47 / yr | $123K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.06 / yr | $401K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.52 / yr | $217K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $8K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $127 |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 3.00 / yr | $170K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 15.00 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Seneca County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Biological (2), Flood (2), Hurricane (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| August 2004 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| August 2003 | Other | Power Outage |
| May 2003 | Severe Ice Storm | Ice Storm |
| September 2001 | Fire | Fires and Explosions |
| October 2000 | Other | West Nile Virus |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Seneca County?
Seneca County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 41.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 42th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Seneca County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Drought (Medium, $462K EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $161K EAL), Riverine Flood (Low, $8M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Seneca County compare to other New York counties?
Seneca County ranks #55 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Seneca County had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Seneca County since 1972, most often 2 for biological events and 2 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Seneca County's $10M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.