Niagara County, New York Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NY
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 83th
Niagara County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 83.4, 83th national percentile), driven primarily by riverine flood and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $52M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Niagara County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 83.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 83rd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Niagara County's expected losses come from riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $45M in expected annual loss and about 1.32 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $760K in expected annual loss and about 2.96 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $664K in expected annual loss and about 27.60 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $52M in expected annual loss for a population of 213K.
Beyond physical exposure, Niagara County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Niagara County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 9 for snowstorm events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm (snowstorm), declared in March 2023.
Among 62 New York counties, Niagara County ranks #20 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 1.32 / yr | $45M |
| Ice Storm | High | 2.96 / yr | $760K |
| Lightning | Medium | 27.60 / yr | $664K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 0.97 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 3.11 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $658K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.90 / yr | $568K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $157K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 18.90 / yr | $83K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.07 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Low | 0.51 / yr | $202K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $19K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $6K |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $2K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $36 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Niagara County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm in March 2023. Most frequent causes: Snowstorm (9), Severe Storm (5), Flood (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2023 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| November 2022 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| November 2017 | Flood | Flooding |
| July 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| June 2011 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Tornadoes, and Straight-Line Winds |
| October 2006 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2006 | Snowstorm | Lake Effect Snowstorm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Niagara County?
Niagara County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 83.4 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 83th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Niagara County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Riverine Flood (Medium, $45M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $760K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $664K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Niagara County compare to other New York counties?
Niagara County ranks #20 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Niagara County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Niagara County since 1973, most often 9 for snowstorm events and 5 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm, declared in March 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Niagara County's $52M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.