Chautauqua County, New York Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NY
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 85th
Chautauqua County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 84.6, 85th national percentile), driven primarily by riverine flood and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $44M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Chautauqua County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 84.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 85th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Chautauqua County's expected losses come from riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at Medium risk — $36M in expected annual loss and about 2.68 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $952K in expected annual loss and about 35.45 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 1.60 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $44M in expected annual loss for a population of 128K.
Beyond physical exposure, Chautauqua County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The federal record bears this out: Chautauqua County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 7 for snowstorm events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm (winter storm), declared in November 2022.
Among 62 New York counties, Chautauqua County ranks #19 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.68 / yr | $36M |
| Lightning | High | 35.45 / yr | $952K |
| Strong Wind | High | 1.60 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.28 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 37.11 / yr | $129K |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.03 / yr | $432K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 3.69 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.06 / yr | $149K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.44 / yr | $2K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $152K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $26K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.89 / yr | $109K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.23 / yr | $93K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $14 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Chautauqua County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm in November 2022. Most frequent causes: Snowstorm (7), Severe Storm (6), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| November 2022 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| December 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| December 2014 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, and Flooding |
| July 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2013 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Chautauqua County?
Chautauqua County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 84.6 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 85th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Chautauqua County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Riverine Flood (Medium, $36M EAL), Lightning (High, $952K EAL), Strong Wind (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Chautauqua County compare to other New York counties?
Chautauqua County ranks #19 of 62 New York counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Chautauqua County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Chautauqua County since 1972, most often 7 for snowstorm events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm, declared in November 2022.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Chautauqua County's $44M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.