Somerset County, New Jersey Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · NJ

Medium

Composite Risk Score

90.9

National percentile: 91th

Somerset County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 90.9, 91th national percentile), driven primarily by riverine flood and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $161M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

Somerset County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 90.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 91st national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Risk here concentrates in riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at High risk — $126M in expected annual loss and about 6.29 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 12.00 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 6.80 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $161M in expected annual loss for a population of 345K.

Beyond physical exposure, Somerset County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.

History supports the rating: Somerset County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 9 for hurricane events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Remnants of Hurricane Ida (hurricane), declared in September 2021.

Among 21 New Jersey counties, Somerset County ranks #15 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $161M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability Very Low Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Very High Capacity to recover
Population 345K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

High $126M/yr
High $1M/yr
High $4M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Riverine Flood High 6.29 / yr$126M
Winter Weather High 12.00 / yr$1M
Strong Wind High 6.80 / yr$4M
Ice Storm High 0.95 / yr$2M
Earthquake Low 0.00 / yr$7M
Heat Wave Medium 7.42 / yr$4M
Hurricane Medium 0.11 / yr$5M
Lightning High 34.15 / yr$1M
Cold Wave Medium 0.89 / yr$4M
Tornado Medium 0.12 / yr$5M
Drought Low 2.88 / yr$432K
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$33K
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.01 / yr$7K
Landslide Very Low 0.14 / yr$273
Hail Very Low 2.43 / yr$87K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Somerset County has received 30 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Remnants of Hurricane Ida in September 2021. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (9), Severe Storm (6), Flood (5).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
September 2021HurricaneRemnants of Hurricane Ida
September 2021HurricaneRemnants of Hurricane Ida
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
June 2018Severe StormSevere Winter Storm and Snowstorm
March 2016Severe StormSevere Winter Storm and Snowstorm
October 2012HurricaneHurricane Sandy
October 2012HurricaneHurricane Sandy
November 2011Severe StormSevere Storm
August 2011HurricaneHurricane Irene

Showing the 10 most recent of 30 declarations.

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Somerset County?

Somerset County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 90.9 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 91th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Somerset County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Riverine Flood (High, $126M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $1M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Somerset County compare to other New Jersey counties?

Somerset County ranks #15 of 21 New Jersey counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Somerset County had?

FEMA records 30 federal disaster declarations for Somerset County since 1965, most often 9 for hurricane events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Remnants of Hurricane Ida, declared in September 2021.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Somerset County's $161M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.