Rosebud County, Montana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MT
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 50th
Rosebud County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 49.7, 50th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Rosebud County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 49.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 50th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Rosebud County's expected losses come from wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $147K in expected annual loss and about 17.33 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 5.05 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 8K.
Beyond physical exposure, Rosebud County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Rosebud County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1978, including 6 for fire events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds (straight-line winds), declared in April 2026.
Among 56 Montana counties, Rosebud County ranks #18 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 17.33 / yr | $147K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 5.05 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 2.59 / yr | $2K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.79 / yr | $4M |
| Lightning | Low | 30.29 / yr | $150K |
| Hail | Low | 1.58 / yr | $114K |
| Drought | Low | 63.78 / yr | $20K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.26 / yr | $82K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $40K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.88 / yr | $83K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.29 / yr | $36K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Rosebud County has received 15 federal disaster declarations since 1978, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds in April 2026. Most frequent causes: Fire (6), Flood (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | Straight-Line Winds | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| September 2021 | Fire | Richard Spring Fire |
| August 2021 | Fire | Richard Spring Fire |
| September 2020 | Fire | Snider/Rice Fire Complex |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2014 | Flood | Ice Jams and Flooding |
| July 2013 | Flood | Flooding |
| August 2012 | Fire | Wildfire |
| June 2012 | Fire | Ash Creek Fire |
Showing the 10 most recent of 15 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Rosebud County?
Rosebud County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 49.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 50th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Rosebud County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $2M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $147K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Rosebud County compare to other Montana counties?
Rosebud County ranks #18 of 56 Montana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Rosebud County had?
FEMA records 15 federal disaster declarations for Rosebud County since 1978, most often 6 for fire events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds, declared in April 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Rosebud County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.