Hill County, Montana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MT
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 50th
Hill County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 50.4, 50th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $13M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Hill County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 50.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 50th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 11.55 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $309K in expected annual loss and about 21.89 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Very Low risk — $83K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $13M in expected annual loss for a population of 16K.
Beyond physical exposure, Hill County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Hill County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1986, including 5 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Flooding (severe storm), declared in July 2024.
Among 56 Montana counties, Hill County ranks #17 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 11.55 / yr | $8M |
| Winter Weather | High | 21.89 / yr | $309K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $83K |
| Lightning | Medium | 21.68 / yr | $284K |
| Drought | Low | 54.43 / yr | $79K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.21 / yr | $4M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.45 / yr | $478 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.32 / yr | $76K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.47 / yr | $71K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $24K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $6K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.55 / yr | $78K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.09 / yr | $39K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $2 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Hill County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1986, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Flooding in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (5), Flood (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| August 2023 | Flood | Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2018 | Flood | Flooding |
| July 2013 | Flood | Flooding |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| July 2002 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 13 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Hill County?
Hill County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 50.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 50th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Hill County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $8M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $309K EAL), Wildfire (Very Low, $83K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Hill County compare to other Montana counties?
Hill County ranks #17 of 56 Montana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Hill County had?
FEMA records 13 federal disaster declarations for Hill County since 1986, most often 5 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Flooding, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Hill County's $13M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.