Blaine County, Montana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MT
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 46th
Blaine County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 45.9, 46th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Blaine County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 45.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 46th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 11.37 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $133K in expected annual loss and about 22.21 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $429K in expected annual loss and about 24.25 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 7K.
Beyond physical exposure, Blaine County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Blaine County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1986, including 4 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds (straight-line winds), declared in April 2026.
Among 56 Montana counties, Blaine County ranks #20 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 11.37 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 22.21 / yr | $133K |
| Lightning | Medium | 24.25 / yr | $429K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $102K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.64 / yr | $4M |
| Landslide | Very Low | 1.31 / yr | $559 |
| Drought | Low | 51.20 / yr | $26K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.61 / yr | $65K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.47 / yr | $38K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $8K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $5 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.58 / yr | $40K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $19K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Blaine County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1986, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds in April 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (4), Flood (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | Straight-Line Winds | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| August 2023 | Flood | Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2018 | Flood | Flooding |
| October 2014 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2013 | Flood | Flooding |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 13 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Blaine County?
Blaine County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 45.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 46th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Blaine County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $4M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $133K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $429K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Blaine County compare to other Montana counties?
Blaine County ranks #20 of 56 Montana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Blaine County had?
FEMA records 13 federal disaster declarations for Blaine County since 1986, most often 4 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds, declared in April 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Blaine County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.