Pondera County, Montana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MT
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 25th
Pondera County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 24.6, 25th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $5M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Pondera County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 24.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 25th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Pondera County's expected losses come from cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 8.97 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $112K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $70K in expected annual loss and about 33.74 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $5M in expected annual loss for a population of 6K.
Beyond physical exposure, Pondera County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Pondera County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1975, including 4 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds (straight-line winds), declared in April 2026.
Among 56 Montana counties, Pondera County ranks #29 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Medium | 8.97 / yr | $3M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $112K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 33.74 / yr | $70K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $188K |
| Drought | Low | 64.85 / yr | $62K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.29 / yr | $2M |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $55 |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.46 / yr | $66 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 18.56 / yr | $36K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.52 / yr | $81K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.69 / yr | $28K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.74 / yr | $19K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $10K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Pondera County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1975, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds in April 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (4), Flood (4), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | Straight-Line Winds | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| August 2018 | Flood | Flooding |
| September 2017 | Fire | Strawberry Fire |
| May 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| April 2014 | Flood | Ice Jams and Flooding |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Pondera County?
Pondera County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 24.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 25th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Pondera County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Medium, $3M EAL), Wildfire (Low, $112K EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $70K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Pondera County compare to other Montana counties?
Pondera County ranks #29 of 56 Montana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Pondera County had?
FEMA records 14 federal disaster declarations for Pondera County since 1975, most often 4 for severe storm events and 4 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds, declared in April 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Pondera County's $5M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.