Teton County, Montana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MT
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 19th
Teton County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 19.0, 19th national percentile), driven primarily by avalanche and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Teton County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 19.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 19th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at Medium risk — $502K in expected annual loss and about 0.03 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $263K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 8.06 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 6K.
Beyond physical exposure, Teton County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: Teton County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1975, including 3 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds (straight-line winds), declared in April 2026.
Among 56 Montana counties, Teton County ranks #31 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Avalanche | Medium | 0.03 / yr | $502K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $263K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 8.06 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 41.46 / yr | $142K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $383K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.85 / yr | $2K |
| Drought | Low | 59.57 / yr | $59K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.32 / yr | $4M |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.66 / yr | $18K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.61 / yr | $76K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.79 / yr | $30K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 20.13 / yr | $28K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.06 / yr | $22K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Teton County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1975, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds in April 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (3), Biological (2), Fire (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | Straight-Line Winds | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2017 | Fire | Strawberry Fire |
| May 2016 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| August 2000 | Fire | Wildfires |
| March 1986 | Flood | Heavy Rains, Landslides & Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Teton County?
Teton County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 19.0 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 19th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Teton County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Avalanche (Medium, $502K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $263K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Teton County compare to other Montana counties?
Teton County ranks #31 of 56 Montana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Teton County had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Teton County since 1975, most often 3 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds, declared in April 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Teton County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.