Phillips County, Montana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MT
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 35th
Phillips County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 34.5, 35th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Phillips County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 34.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 35th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Phillips County's expected losses come from cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 14.32 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $86K in expected annual loss and about 17.79 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $103K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 4K.
Beyond physical exposure, Phillips County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The federal record bears this out: Phillips County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1986, including 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds (straight-line winds), declared in April 2026.
Among 56 Montana counties, Phillips County ranks #28 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | Medium | 14.32 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 17.79 / yr | $86K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $103K |
| Lightning | Medium | 25.61 / yr | $282K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 1.56 / yr | $607 |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.75 / yr | $3M |
| Drought | Very Low | 58.75 / yr | $13K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.92 / yr | $70K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.51 / yr | $46K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $11K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.90 / yr | $44K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.30 / yr | $29K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $1 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Phillips County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1986, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds in April 2026. Most frequent causes: Flood (3), Biological (2), Severe Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | Straight-Line Winds | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| October 2023 | Flood | Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| August 2000 | Fire | Wildfires |
| May 1996 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Ice Jams, Soil Saturation |
| October 1986 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| March 1986 | Flood | Heavy Rains, Landslides & Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Phillips County?
Phillips County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 34.5 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 35th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Phillips County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (Medium, $4M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $86K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $103K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Phillips County compare to other Montana counties?
Phillips County ranks #28 of 56 Montana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Phillips County had?
FEMA records 10 federal disaster declarations for Phillips County since 1986, most often 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds, declared in April 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Phillips County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.