Lincoln County, Montana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MT
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 64th
Lincoln County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 64.3, 64th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and avalanche exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $16M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Lincoln County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 64.3 out of 100 — placing it in the 64th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Lincoln County's expected losses come from wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; avalanche (fast-moving snow and debris sliding down steep mountain slopes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.13 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Medium risk — $49K in expected annual loss and about 2.38 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $16M in expected annual loss for a population of 20K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lincoln County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Lincoln County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 4 for fire events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (flood), declared in April 2026.
Among 56 Montana counties, Lincoln County ranks #10 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $4M |
| Avalanche | High | 0.13 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Medium | 2.38 / yr | $49K |
| Winter Weather | High | 36.31 / yr | $211K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.50 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.61 / yr | $7M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $363K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.03 / yr | $37K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.09 / yr | $131K |
| Lightning | Low | 19.97 / yr | $68K |
| Drought | Very Low | 28.52 / yr | $440 |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.13 / yr | $47K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $18K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $6K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lincoln County has received 14 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in April 2026. Most frequent causes: Fire (4), Flood (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2026 | Straight-Line Winds | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| December 2025 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2017 | Fire | Moose Peak Fire |
| September 2017 | Fire | West Fork Fire |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| August 2000 | Fire | Wildfires |
| August 2000 | Fire | Mt - Northwestern Zone 1 Fire Complex |
Showing the 10 most recent of 14 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lincoln County?
Lincoln County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 64.3 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 64th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lincoln County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Medium, $4M EAL), Avalanche (High, $2M EAL), Landslide (Medium, $49K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lincoln County compare to other Montana counties?
Lincoln County ranks #10 of 56 Montana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lincoln County had?
FEMA records 14 federal disaster declarations for Lincoln County since 1974, most often 4 for fire events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in April 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lincoln County's $16M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.