Dawson County, Montana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MT
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 64th
Dawson County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 63.8, 64th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $21M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Dawson County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 63.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 64th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Dawson County's expected losses come from cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $16M in expected annual loss and about 13.79 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $249K in expected annual loss and about 18.84 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $541K in expected annual loss and about 28.17 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $21M in expected annual loss for a population of 9K.
Beyond physical exposure, Dawson County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Dawson County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1986, including 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds (straight-line winds), declared in April 2026.
Among 56 Montana counties, Dawson County ranks #11 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 13.79 / yr | $16M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 18.84 / yr | $249K |
| Lightning | Medium | 28.17 / yr | $541K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 2.68 / yr | $594K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $74K |
| Strong Wind | Low | 1.57 / yr | $518K |
| Hail | Low | 2.05 / yr | $208K |
| Drought | Low | 31.86 / yr | $32K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.90 / yr | $360 |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.00 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.23 / yr | $335K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $15K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $6K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Dawson County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1986, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds in April 2026. Most frequent causes: Flood (3), Biological (2), Severe Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | Straight-Line Winds | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| August 2021 | Other | Straight-Line Winds |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2014 | Flood | Ice Jams and Flooding |
| July 2013 | Flood | Flooding |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| July 1997 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms,Ice Jams, Snow Melt, Flooding |
| March 1986 | Flood | Heavy Rains, Landslides & Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Dawson County?
Dawson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 63.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 64th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Dawson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $16M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $249K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $541K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Dawson County compare to other Montana counties?
Dawson County ranks #11 of 56 Montana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Dawson County had?
FEMA records 10 federal disaster declarations for Dawson County since 1986, most often 3 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds, declared in April 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Dawson County's $21M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.