Carbon County, Montana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MT
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 60th
Carbon County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 59.8, 60th national percentile), driven primarily by landslide and wildfire exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $16M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Carbon County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 59.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 60th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at High risk — $854K in expected annual loss and about 2.50 events per year; wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $490K in expected annual loss and about 34.91 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $16M in expected annual loss for a population of 10K.
Beyond physical exposure, Carbon County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
History supports the rating: Carbon County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1978, including 4 for flood events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds (straight-line winds), declared in April 2026.
Among 56 Montana counties, Carbon County ranks #12 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Landslide | High | 2.50 / yr | $854K |
| Wildfire | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Medium | 34.91 / yr | $490K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.64 / yr | $11M |
| Avalanche | Low | 0.13 / yr | $3K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 21.02 / yr | $93K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.35 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $254K |
| Hail | Low | 1.31 / yr | $174K |
| Drought | Low | 75.18 / yr | $41K |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.07 / yr | $52K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.11 / yr | $141K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.69 / yr | $65K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $4K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Carbon County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1978, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds in April 2026. Most frequent causes: Flood (4), Fire (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | Straight-Line Winds | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| October 2023 | Flood | Flooding |
| June 2022 | Flood | Severe Storm and Flooding |
| June 2021 | Fire | Robertson Draw Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| October 2018 | Flood | Flooding |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| August 2000 | Fire | Wildfires |
Showing the 10 most recent of 13 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Carbon County?
Carbon County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 59.8 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 60th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Carbon County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Landslide (High, $854K EAL), Wildfire (Medium, $2M EAL), Lightning (Medium, $490K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Carbon County compare to other Montana counties?
Carbon County ranks #12 of 56 Montana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Carbon County had?
FEMA records 13 federal disaster declarations for Carbon County since 1978, most often 4 for flood events and 3 for fire events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds, declared in April 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Carbon County's $16M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.