Garfield County, Montana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MT
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 2th
Garfield County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 2.5, 2th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $3M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Garfield County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 2.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 2nd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $398K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Low risk — $886K in expected annual loss and about 11.47 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Very Low risk — $687 in expected annual loss and about 2.18 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $3M in expected annual loss for a population of 1K.
Beyond physical exposure, Garfield County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Garfield County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1986, including 4 for fire events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds (straight-line winds), declared in April 2026.
Among 56 Montana counties, Garfield County ranks #51 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $398K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 11.47 / yr | $886K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 2.18 / yr | $687 |
| Lightning | Low | 27.49 / yr | $158K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.41 / yr | $96K |
| Drought | Very Low | 60.69 / yr | $7K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 18.16 / yr | $20K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 1.20 / yr | $158K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 3.00 / yr | $23K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $7K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 1.07 / yr | $876K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.34 / yr | $16K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $985 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Garfield County has received 13 federal disaster declarations since 1986, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds in April 2026. Most frequent causes: Fire (4), Flood (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| April 2026 | Straight-Line Winds | Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds |
| October 2023 | Flood | Flooding |
| August 2021 | Other | Straight-Line Winds |
| September 2020 | Fire | Huff Fire |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2017 | Fire | Lodgepole Fire Complex |
| July 2013 | Flood | Flooding |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 13 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Garfield County?
Garfield County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 2.5 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 2th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Garfield County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Low, $398K EAL), Cold Wave (Low, $886K EAL), Landslide (Very Low, $687 EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Garfield County compare to other Montana counties?
Garfield County ranks #51 of 56 Montana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Garfield County had?
FEMA records 13 federal disaster declarations for Garfield County since 1986, most often 4 for fire events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Straight-Line Winds, declared in April 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Garfield County's $3M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.