Fergus County, Montana Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MT
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 45th
Fergus County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 45.1, 45th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $14M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Fergus County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 45.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 45th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $8M in expected annual loss and about 8.81 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $442K in expected annual loss and about 36.99 events per year; and wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $404K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $14M in expected annual loss for a population of 11K.
Beyond physical exposure, Fergus County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Fergus County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1975, including 4 for flood events and 2 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Flooding (severe storm), declared in July 2024.
Among 56 Montana counties, Fergus County ranks #21 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 8.81 / yr | $8M |
| Winter Weather | High | 36.99 / yr | $442K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $404K |
| Landslide | Low | 2.31 / yr | $6K |
| Lightning | Medium | 29.16 / yr | $461K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.50 / yr | $4M |
| Drought | Low | 86.11 / yr | $30K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.29 / yr | $102K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $46K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $61 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.43 / yr | $61K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.38 / yr | $149K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $6K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.61 / yr | $59K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Fergus County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1975, most recently Severe Winter Storm and Flooding in July 2024. Most frequent causes: Flood (4), Severe Storm (2), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| October 2023 | Flood | Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2013 | Flood | Flooding |
| June 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| August 2000 | Fire | Wildfires |
| March 1986 | Flood | Heavy Rains, Landslides & Flooding |
| June 1975 | Flood | Rains, Showmelt, Storms & Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Fergus County?
Fergus County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 45.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 45th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Fergus County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $8M EAL), Winter Weather (High, $442K EAL), Wildfire (Low, $404K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Fergus County compare to other Montana counties?
Fergus County ranks #21 of 56 Montana counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Fergus County had?
FEMA records 10 federal disaster declarations for Fergus County since 1975, most often 4 for flood events and 2 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm and Flooding, declared in July 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Fergus County's $14M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.