Wayne County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 67th
Wayne County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 67.0, 67th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $15M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Wayne County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 67.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 67th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 1.11 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $15K in expected annual loss and about 3.35 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $15M in expected annual loss for a population of 11K.
Beyond physical exposure, Wayne County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Wayne County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 15 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in May 2025.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Wayne County ranks #33 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.11 / yr | $3M |
| Landslide | Low | 3.35 / yr | $15K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 11.32 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.15 / yr | $180K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.52 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 3.75 / yr | $7M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 7.74 / yr | $60K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.76 / yr | $375K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $24K |
| Lightning | Low | 56.41 / yr | $98K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $13K |
| Drought | Low | 5.03 / yr | $19K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.18 / yr | $53K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Wayne County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (15), Flood (5), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires |
| September 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2022 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes |
| July 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Wayne County?
Wayne County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 67.0 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 67th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Wayne County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Low, $2M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $3M EAL), Landslide (Low, $15K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Wayne County compare to other Missouri counties?
Wayne County ranks #33 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Wayne County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Wayne County since 1973, most often 15 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Wayne County's $15M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.