Lincoln County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 67th
Lincoln County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 67.1, 67th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and landslide exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $32M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Lincoln County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 67.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 67th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Lincoln County's expected losses come from heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 11.53 events per year; landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $27K in expected annual loss and about 0.50 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 5.77 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $32M in expected annual loss for a population of 59K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lincoln County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Lincoln County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 15 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in September 2021.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Lincoln County ranks #32 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | Medium | 11.53 / yr | $5M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.50 / yr | $27K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.77 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 5.25 / yr | $937K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.46 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.89 / yr | $16M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.26 / yr | $3M |
| Lightning | Medium | 49.98 / yr | $434K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $96K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 9.37 / yr | $96K |
| Drought | Low | 3.34 / yr | $108K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.15 / yr | $40K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lincoln County has received 29 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in September 2021. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (15), Flood (5), Severe Ice Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2021 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 29 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lincoln County?
Lincoln County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 67.1 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 67th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lincoln County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Medium, $5M EAL), Landslide (Low, $27K EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lincoln County compare to other Missouri counties?
Lincoln County ranks #32 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lincoln County had?
FEMA records 29 federal disaster declarations for Lincoln County since 1965, most often 15 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in September 2021.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lincoln County's $32M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.