Polk County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 54th
Polk County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 54.5, 54th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $16M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Polk County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 54.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 54th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Polk County's expected losses come from ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $582K in expected annual loss and about 0.92 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 13.68 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $997K in expected annual loss and about 5.29 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $16M in expected annual loss for a population of 31K.
Beyond physical exposure, Polk County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Polk County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 14 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in July 2020.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Polk County ranks #54 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 0.92 / yr | $582K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 13.68 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 5.29 / yr | $997K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.45 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | Medium | 55.06 / yr | $475K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $177K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 11.74 / yr | $117K |
| Hail | Low | 6.88 / yr | $444K |
| Drought | Medium | 6.93 / yr | $349K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $479K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 3.96 / yr | $7M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 2.32 / yr | $814K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.24 / yr | $274 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $7K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Polk County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding in July 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (14), Flood (3), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| June 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Polk County?
Polk County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 54.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 54th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Polk County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $582K EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $1M EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $997K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Polk County compare to other Missouri counties?
Polk County ranks #54 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Polk County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Polk County since 1973, most often 14 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding, declared in July 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Polk County's $16M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.