Carter County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 54th
Carter County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 53.9, 54th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Carter County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 53.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 54th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Carter County's expected losses come from earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.11 events per year; and landslide (downhill movement of rock, soil, and debris on unstable slopes) at Low risk — $8K in expected annual loss and about 1.98 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 5K.
Beyond physical exposure, Carter County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Carter County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1976, including 12 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires (severe storm), declared in May 2025.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Carter County ranks #55 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $1M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.11 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 1.98 / yr | $8K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 1.20 / yr | $149K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 11.26 / yr | $439K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.37 / yr | $471K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.89 / yr | $6M |
| Lightning | Medium | 57.88 / yr | $198K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $25K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 7.68 / yr | $29K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.30 / yr | $518K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $9K |
| Drought | Very Low | 4.06 / yr | $960 |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.38 / yr | $19K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Carter County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1976, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (12), Flood (3), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Carter County?
Carter County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 53.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 54th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Carter County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Low, $1M EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $2M EAL), Landslide (Low, $8K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Carter County compare to other Missouri counties?
Carter County ranks #55 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Carter County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Carter County since 1976, most often 12 for severe storm events and 3 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Carter County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.