Phelps County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 54th
Phelps County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 53.7, 54th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $19M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Phelps County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 53.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 54th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 11.63 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $716K in expected annual loss and about 1.03 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $19M in expected annual loss for a population of 45K.
Beyond physical exposure, Phelps County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Phelps County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1976, including 13 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires (severe storm), declared in May 2025.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Phelps County ranks #56 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | Medium | 11.63 / yr | $3M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.03 / yr | $716K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.42 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 12.00 / yr | $190K |
| Landslide | Low | 1.00 / yr | $6K |
| Lightning | Medium | 53.89 / yr | $348K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.40 / yr | $759K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $79K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.68 / yr | $7M |
| Tornado | Low | 0.33 / yr | $843K |
| Hail | Low | 4.56 / yr | $151K |
| Drought | Very Low | 3.41 / yr | $26K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $11K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Phelps County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1976, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (13), Flood (5), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires |
| January 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| August 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| September 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Phelps County?
Phelps County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 53.7 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 54th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Phelps County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Medium, $3M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $716K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Phelps County compare to other Missouri counties?
Phelps County ranks #56 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Phelps County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Phelps County since 1976, most often 13 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Phelps County's $19M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.