Jasper County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 86th
Jasper County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 85.6, 86th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $59M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Jasper County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 85.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 86th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.13 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at High risk — $13M in expected annual loss and about 0.52 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 16.42 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $59M in expected annual loss for a population of 123K.
Beyond physical exposure, Jasper County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
History supports the rating: Jasper County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 10 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Jasper County ranks #11 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.13 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | High | 0.52 / yr | $13M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 16.42 / yr | $5M |
| Drought | High | 12.46 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 7.47 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 55.51 / yr | $1M |
| Strong Wind | High | 6.02 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | High | 10.47 / yr | $339K |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 4.86 / yr | $26M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.21 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $133K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $28K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.13 / yr | $387 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Jasper County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Flood (5), Severe Ice Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| June 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| January 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Jasper County?
Jasper County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 85.6 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 86th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Jasper County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $2M EAL), Tornado (High, $13M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $5M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Jasper County compare to other Missouri counties?
Jasper County ranks #11 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Jasper County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Jasper County since 1973, most often 10 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Jasper County's $59M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.