Cape Girardeau County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 86th
Cape Girardeau County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 85.7, 86th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $68M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Cape Girardeau County carries a medium composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 85.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 86th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $29M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 1.11 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 10.95 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $68M in expected annual loss for a population of 82K.
Beyond physical exposure, Cape Girardeau County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Cape Girardeau County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 15 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in May 2025.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Cape Girardeau County ranks #10 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.01 / yr | $29M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.11 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 10.95 / yr | $4M |
| Winter Weather | High | 7.89 / yr | $540K |
| Landslide | Low | 1.65 / yr | $27K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.16 / yr | $4M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 6.32 / yr | $21M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.49 / yr | $4M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.03 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Medium | 3.46 / yr | $764K |
| Lightning | Medium | 56.44 / yr | $412K |
| Drought | Low | 3.88 / yr | $355K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $32K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $20K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Cape Girardeau County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (15), Flood (6), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Cape Girardeau County?
Cape Girardeau County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 85.7 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 86th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Cape Girardeau County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $29M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $2M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Cape Girardeau County compare to other Missouri counties?
Cape Girardeau County ranks #10 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Cape Girardeau County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Cape Girardeau County since 1973, most often 15 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Cape Girardeau County's $68M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.