New Madrid County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 72th
New Madrid County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 71.9, 72th national percentile), driven primarily by earthquake and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $28M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates New Madrid County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 71.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 72nd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Medium risk — $18M in expected annual loss and about 0.02 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 11.53 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $504K in expected annual loss and about 1.33 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $28M in expected annual loss for a population of 16K.
Beyond physical exposure, New Madrid County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Both measures sit toward the lower end, indicating relatively modest population sensitivity.
The federal record bears this out: New Madrid County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1973, including 17 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in May 2025.
Among 115 Missouri counties, New Madrid County ranks #28 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.02 / yr | $18M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 11.53 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | High | 1.33 / yr | $504K |
| Drought | Medium | 11.74 / yr | $855K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.79 / yr | $908K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 6.42 / yr | $93K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.62 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.89 / yr | $851K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $37K |
| Lightning | Low | 57.55 / yr | $167K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.71 / yr | $332 |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.07 / yr | $86K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 2.57 / yr | $2M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
New Madrid County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1973, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in May 2025. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (17), Flood (5), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Wildfires |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| September 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| July 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2019 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for New Madrid County?
New Madrid County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 71.9 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 72th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in New Madrid County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Earthquake (Medium, $18M EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $2M EAL), Ice Storm (High, $504K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does New Madrid County compare to other Missouri counties?
New Madrid County ranks #28 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has New Madrid County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for New Madrid County since 1973, most often 17 for severe storm events and 5 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in May 2025.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. New Madrid County's $28M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.