Clay County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 90th
Clay County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 89.8, 90th national percentile), driven primarily by cold wave and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $113M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Clay County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 89.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 90th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Clay County's expected losses come from cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $26M in expected annual loss and about 2.53 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at High risk — $7M in expected annual loss and about 8.47 events per year; and heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at High risk — $12M in expected annual loss and about 14.84 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $113M in expected annual loss for a population of 253K.
Beyond physical exposure, Clay County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Clay County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 9 for severe storm events and 8 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic (biological), declared in March 2020.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Clay County ranks #7 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Cold Wave | High | 2.53 / yr | $26M |
| Hail | High | 8.47 / yr | $7M |
| Heat Wave | High | 14.84 / yr | $12M |
| Tornado | High | 0.27 / yr | $21M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 3.04 / yr | $43M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.85 / yr | $642K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 11.21 / yr | $266K |
| Landslide | Low | 0.20 / yr | $14K |
| Lightning | Medium | 48.91 / yr | $845K |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $225K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $763K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 6.44 / yr | $964K |
| Drought | Low | 12.68 / yr | $125K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Clay County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Covid-19 Pandemic in March 2020. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (9), Flood (8), Severe Ice Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| June 2011 | Flood | Flooding |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2009 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| December 2007 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| June 2007 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Clay County?
Clay County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 89.8 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 90th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Clay County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Cold Wave (High, $26M EAL), Hail (High, $7M EAL), Heat Wave (High, $12M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Clay County compare to other Missouri counties?
Clay County ranks #7 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Clay County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Clay County since 1965, most often 9 for severe storm events and 8 for flood events. The most recent was Covid-19 Pandemic, declared in March 2020.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Clay County's $113M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.