Greene County, Missouri Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MO
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 90th
Greene County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 90.1, 90th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $97M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Greene County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 90.1 out of 100 — placing it in the 90th national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 1.18 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at High risk — $17M in expected annual loss and about 13.42 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 11.74 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $97M in expected annual loss for a population of 299K.
Beyond physical exposure, Greene County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Greene County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 13 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in June 2026.
Among 115 Missouri counties, Greene County ranks #6 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.18 / yr | $5M |
| Heat Wave | High | 13.42 / yr | $17M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 11.74 / yr | $1M |
| Lightning | High | 57.32 / yr | $2M |
| Tornado | High | 0.51 / yr | $13M |
| Hail | Medium | 7.25 / yr | $3M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $10M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 6.14 / yr | $39M |
| Strong Wind | High | 5.66 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 2.37 / yr | $4M |
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $241K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.25 / yr | $2K |
| Drought | Low | 4.18 / yr | $112K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $37K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Greene County has received 27 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding in June 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (13), Flood (6), Severe Ice Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| September 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2019 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| June 2017 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| January 2016 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| February 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 27 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Greene County?
Greene County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 90.1 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 90th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Greene County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (Very High, $5M EAL), Heat Wave (High, $17M EAL), Winter Weather (Very High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Greene County compare to other Missouri counties?
Greene County ranks #6 of 115 Missouri counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Greene County had?
FEMA records 27 federal disaster declarations for Greene County since 1974, most often 13 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in June 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Greene County's $97M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.