Lincoln County, Mississippi Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MS
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 48th
Lincoln County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 48.4, 48th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and hurricane exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Lincoln County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 48.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 48th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 14.53 events per year; hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.14 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 0.73 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 35K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lincoln County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Lincoln County has received 32 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 14 for hurricane events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding (severe storm), declared in June 2026.
Among 82 Mississippi counties, Lincoln County ranks #46 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | Medium | 14.53 / yr | $1M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.14 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.73 / yr | $3M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 2.96 / yr | $716K |
| Hail | Low | 3.64 / yr | $373K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $69K |
| Lightning | Medium | 76.73 / yr | $232K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.89 / yr | $89K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $296K |
| Drought | Low | 9.99 / yr | $114K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.26 / yr | $621 |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.29 / yr | $4M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.74 / yr | $262K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 1.89 / yr | $7K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lincoln County has received 32 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding in June 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (14), Severe Storm (6), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| October 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ida |
| August 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ida |
| May 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| October 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Delta |
| September 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sally |
| August 2020 | Hurricane | Hurricane Marco and Tropical Storm Laura |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
Showing the 10 most recent of 32 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lincoln County?
Lincoln County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 48.4 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 48th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lincoln County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (Medium, $1M EAL), Hurricane (Low, $1M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $3M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lincoln County compare to other Mississippi counties?
Lincoln County ranks #46 of 82 Mississippi counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lincoln County had?
FEMA records 32 federal disaster declarations for Lincoln County since 1965, most often 14 for hurricane events and 6 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in June 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lincoln County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.