Smith County, Mississippi Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MS
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 47th
Smith County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 47.2, 47th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $10M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Smith County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 47.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 47th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.13 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Medium risk — $648K in expected annual loss and about 4.78 events per year; and tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.96 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $10M in expected annual loss for a population of 14K.
Beyond physical exposure, Smith County has a very high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very low community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Smith County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1969, including 8 for severe storm events and 8 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in February 2026.
Among 82 Mississippi counties, Smith County ranks #48 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.13 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Medium | 4.78 / yr | $648K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.96 / yr | $2M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.45 / yr | $2K |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 3.92 / yr | $504K |
| Drought | Low | 13.53 / yr | $194K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 11.63 / yr | $321K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.01 / yr | $65K |
| Lightning | Low | 73.84 / yr | $166K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $169K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $26K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.79 / yr | $551K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 1.07 / yr | $3M |
| Winter Weather | Low | 2.21 / yr | $22K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Smith County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1969, most recently Severe Winter Storm in February 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (8), Hurricane (8), Winter Storm (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| February 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| May 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| August 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Tornadoes. |
| October 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ida |
| August 2021 | Hurricane | Hurricane Ida |
| May 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms |
| July 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Smith County?
Smith County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 47.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 47th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Smith County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Medium, $2M EAL), Hail (Medium, $648K EAL), Tornado (Medium, $2M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Smith County compare to other Mississippi counties?
Smith County ranks #48 of 82 Mississippi counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Smith County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Smith County since 1969, most often 8 for severe storm events and 8 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in February 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Smith County's $10M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.