Mille Lacs County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 28th
Mille Lacs County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 28.5, 28th national percentile), driven primarily by wildfire and cold wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Mille Lacs County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 28.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 28th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in wildfire (uncontrolled fires that spread across wildland and into communities) at Low risk — $151K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year; cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 11.95 events per year; and hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $406K in expected annual loss and about 4.52 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 26K.
Beyond physical exposure, Mille Lacs County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Mille Lacs County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1965, including 5 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (flood), declared in July 2023.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Mille Lacs County ranks #56 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Wildfire | Low | 0.00 / yr | $151K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 11.95 / yr | $2M |
| Hail | Low | 4.52 / yr | $406K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.43 / yr | $7M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 2.92 / yr | $552K |
| Lightning | Low | 32.54 / yr | $193K |
| Drought | Low | 8.78 / yr | $73K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.07 / yr | $464 |
| Tornado | Low | 0.28 / yr | $645K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 1.95 / yr | $148K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.38 / yr | $33K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 16.95 / yr | $29K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $4K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Mille Lacs County has received 10 federal disaster declarations since 1965, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in July 2023. Most frequent causes: Flood (5), Biological (2), Severe Storm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| July 2023 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2001 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| June 1976 | Drought | Drought |
| August 1972 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| April 1969 | Flood | Flooding |
| April 1965 | Flood | Flooding |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Mille Lacs County?
Mille Lacs County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 28.5 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 28th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Mille Lacs County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Wildfire (Low, $151K EAL), Cold Wave (Low, $2M EAL), Hail (Low, $406K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Mille Lacs County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Mille Lacs County ranks #56 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Mille Lacs County had?
FEMA records 10 federal disaster declarations for Mille Lacs County since 1965, most often 5 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in July 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Mille Lacs County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.