Lake County, Minnesota Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MN
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 34th
Lake County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 33.9, 34th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $11M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Lake County carries a very low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 33.9 out of 100 — placing it in the 34th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.46 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $242K in expected annual loss and about 24.50 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 17.83 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $11M in expected annual loss for a population of 11K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lake County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Lake County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 5 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding (flood), declared in June 2024.
Among 87 Minnesota counties, Lake County ranks #52 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | High | 0.46 / yr | $2M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 24.50 / yr | $242K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 17.83 / yr | $4M |
| Lightning | Medium | 25.12 / yr | $502K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $98K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 1.11 / yr | $449 |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.29 / yr | $3M |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.13 / yr | $22K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.23 / yr | $72K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.53 / yr | $72K |
| Drought | Very Low | 16.91 / yr | $3K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.12 / yr | $74K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lake County has received 12 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Severe Storms and Flooding in June 2024. Most frequent causes: Flood (5), Severe Storm (3), Biological (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2024 | Flood | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| July 2022 | Flood | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| April 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| September 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Straight-Line Winds, and Flooding |
| July 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| April 2009 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| May 2001 | Flood | Severe Winter Storms, Flooding, and Tornadoes |
| July 1999 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Winds, and Flooding |
Showing the 10 most recent of 12 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lake County?
Lake County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 33.9 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 34th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lake County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $242K EAL), Cold Wave (Medium, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lake County compare to other Minnesota counties?
Lake County ranks #52 of 87 Minnesota counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lake County had?
FEMA records 12 federal disaster declarations for Lake County since 1972, most often 5 for flood events and 3 for severe storm events. The most recent was Severe Storms and Flooding, declared in June 2024.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lake County's $11M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.