Manistee County, Michigan Natural Disaster Risk

FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MI

Very Low

Composite Risk Score

37.2

National percentile: 37th

Manistee County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 37.2, 37th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.

Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025

Risk Overview

FEMA's National Risk Index rates Manistee County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 37.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 37th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.

Risk here concentrates in winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $383K in expected annual loss and about 27.90 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $493K in expected annual loss and about 26.72 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.84 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 25K.

Beyond physical exposure, Manistee County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.

The county's disaster history tells the same story: Manistee County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 2 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in June 2026.

Among 83 Michigan counties, Manistee County ranks #54 for overall natural disaster risk.

Expected Annual Loss $9M Annualized county-level EAL
Social Vulnerability High Population sensitivity
Community Resilience Very High Capacity to recover
Population 25K Latest estimate

Top Hazards

High $383K/yr
Medium $493K/yr
Low $1M/yr

All 18 Hazard Risks

Winter Weather High 27.90 / yr$383K
Lightning Medium 26.72 / yr$493K
Cold Wave Low 0.84 / yr$1M
Landslide Low 0.18 / yr$3K
Riverine Flood Low 0.43 / yr$7M
Strong Wind Low 0.96 / yr$272K
Wildfire Very Low 0.00 / yr$10K
Coastal Flood Very Low 0.01 / yr$3K
Heat Wave Very Low 0.84 / yr$68K
Tornado Very Low 0.14 / yr$193K
Hail Very Low 0.76 / yr$50K
Ice Storm Very Low 0.14 / yr$10K
Hurricane Very Low 0.01 / yr$3K
Earthquake Very Low 0.00 / yr$13K
Avalanche Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Drought Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Tsunami Very Low 0.00 / yr$0
Volcanic Activity Very Low 0.00 / yr$0

Disaster History

Manistee County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding in June 2026. Most frequent causes: Flood (2), Biological (2), Severe Storm (1).

DeclaredTypeDisaster
June 2026FloodSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19 Pandemic
March 2020BiologicalCovid-19
July 2008Severe StormSevere Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding
September 2005HurricaneHurricane Katrina Evacuation
September 1986FloodSevere Storms & Flooding
January 1978SnowstormBlizzards & Snowstorms
March 1977DroughtDrought

Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the overall natural disaster risk for Manistee County?

Manistee County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 37.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 37th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.

What are the top natural hazards in Manistee County?

The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $383K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $493K EAL), Cold Wave (Low, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.

How does Manistee County compare to other Michigan counties?

Manistee County ranks #54 of 83 Michigan counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.

How many federally declared disasters has Manistee County had?

FEMA records 8 federal disaster declarations for Manistee County since 1977, most often 2 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in June 2026.

What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?

EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Manistee County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.