Manistee County, Michigan Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MI
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 37th
Manistee County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 37.2, 37th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Manistee County at very low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 37.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 37th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $383K in expected annual loss and about 27.90 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at Medium risk — $493K in expected annual loss and about 26.72 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at Low risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 0.84 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 25K.
Beyond physical exposure, Manistee County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Manistee County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 1977, including 2 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding (flood), declared in June 2026.
Among 83 Michigan counties, Manistee County ranks #54 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 27.90 / yr | $383K |
| Lightning | Medium | 26.72 / yr | $493K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.84 / yr | $1M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.18 / yr | $3K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.43 / yr | $7M |
| Strong Wind | Low | 0.96 / yr | $272K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $10K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.84 / yr | $68K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $193K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.76 / yr | $50K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.14 / yr | $10K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $13K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Manistee County has received 8 federal disaster declarations since 1977, most recently Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding in June 2026. Most frequent causes: Flood (2), Biological (2), Severe Storm (1).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| June 2026 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2008 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
| September 1986 | Flood | Severe Storms & Flooding |
| January 1978 | Snowstorm | Blizzards & Snowstorms |
| March 1977 | Drought | Drought |
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Manistee County?
Manistee County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 37.2 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 37th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Manistee County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $383K EAL), Lightning (Medium, $493K EAL), Cold Wave (Low, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Manistee County compare to other Michigan counties?
Manistee County ranks #54 of 83 Michigan counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Manistee County had?
FEMA records 8 federal disaster declarations for Manistee County since 1977, most often 2 for flood events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding, declared in June 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Manistee County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.