Dukes County, Massachusetts Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MA
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 17th
Dukes County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 16.8, 17th national percentile), driven primarily by hurricane and coastal flood exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $7M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Dukes County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 16.8 out of 100 — placing it in the 17th national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.16 events per year; coastal flood (seawater inundation from storm surge, high tides, and rising sea levels) at Low risk — $348K in expected annual loss and about 3.69 events per year; and earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Very Low risk — $113K in expected annual loss and about 0.00 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $7M in expected annual loss for a population of 20K.
Beyond physical exposure, Dukes County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Dukes County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 9 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Hurricane Lee (hurricane), declared in September 2023.
Among 14 Massachusetts counties, Dukes County ranks #14 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Hurricane | Low | 0.16 / yr | $2M |
| Coastal Flood | Low | 3.69 / yr | $348K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $113K |
| Riverine Flood | Very Low | 0.18 / yr | $4M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $14K |
| Drought | Very Low | 2.45 / yr | $4K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $54 |
| Lightning | Very Low | 15.85 / yr | $50K |
| Ice Storm | Very Low | 0.24 / yr | $7K |
| Tornado | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $83K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 0.74 / yr | $14K |
| Strong Wind | Very Low | 0.32 / yr | $60K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.37 / yr | $27K |
| Winter Weather | Very Low | 6.74 / yr | $2K |
| Hail | Very Low | 0.56 / yr | $1K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Dukes County has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Hurricane Lee in September 2023. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (9), Snowstorm (4), Severe Storm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Lee |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, and Flooding |
| April 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, and Flooding |
| December 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| September 2011 | Hurricane | Tropical Storm Irene |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| September 2010 | Hurricane | Hurricane Earl |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Dukes County?
Dukes County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 16.8 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 17th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Dukes County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Hurricane (Low, $2M EAL), Coastal Flood (Low, $348K EAL), Earthquake (Very Low, $113K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Dukes County compare to other Massachusetts counties?
Dukes County ranks #14 of 14 Massachusetts counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Dukes County had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Dukes County since 1972, most often 9 for hurricane events and 4 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Hurricane Lee, declared in September 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Dukes County's $7M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.