Essex County, Massachusetts Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MA
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 96th
Essex County faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 95.6, 96th national percentile), driven primarily by coastal flood and ice storm exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $199M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Essex County at high composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 95.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 96th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in coastal flood (seawater inundation from storm surge, high tides, and rising sea levels) at Very High risk — $19M in expected annual loss and about 8.13 events per year; ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Very High risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 1.46 events per year; and riverine flood (rivers and streams overflowing their banks after heavy rain or snowmelt) at High risk — $125M in expected annual loss and about 2.68 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $199M in expected annual loss for a population of 809K.
Beyond physical exposure, Essex County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Essex County has received 40 federal disaster declarations since 1972, including 10 for severe storm events and 8 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Hurricane Lee (hurricane), declared in September 2023.
Among 14 Massachusetts counties, Essex County ranks #2 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Coastal Flood | Very High | 8.13 / yr | $19M |
| Ice Storm | Very High | 1.46 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 2.68 / yr | $125M |
| Lightning | High | 19.41 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $15M |
| Hurricane | High | 0.17 / yr | $15M |
| Tornado | High | 0.12 / yr | $9M |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 5.07 / yr | $4M |
| Drought | Medium | 8.48 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | High | 0.75 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.38 / yr | $4M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.25 / yr | $3K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $83K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 15.06 / yr | $59K |
| Hail | Very Low | 1.79 / yr | $53K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Essex County has received 40 federal disaster declarations since 1972, most recently Hurricane Lee in September 2023. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Snowstorm (8), Hurricane (7).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| September 2023 | Hurricane | Hurricane Lee |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| July 2018 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| June 2018 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm and Flooding |
| April 2015 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, and Flooding |
| April 2013 | Severe Storm | Severe Winter Storm, Snowstorm, and Flooding |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| November 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storm |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
Showing the 10 most recent of 40 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Essex County?
Essex County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 95.6 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 96th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Essex County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Coastal Flood (Very High, $19M EAL), Ice Storm (Very High, $3M EAL), Riverine Flood (High, $125M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Essex County compare to other Massachusetts counties?
Essex County ranks #2 of 14 Massachusetts counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Essex County had?
FEMA records 40 federal disaster declarations for Essex County since 1972, most often 10 for severe storm events and 8 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Hurricane Lee, declared in September 2023.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Essex County's $199M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.