Montgomery County, Maryland Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MD
MediumComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 92th
Montgomery County faces medium composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 91.7, 92th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $126M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Montgomery County at medium composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 91.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 92nd national percentile and near the national midpoint for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Montgomery County's expected losses come from winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 12.06 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at High risk — $11M in expected annual loss and about 5.26 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 8.21 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $126M in expected annual loss for a population of 1.06M.
Beyond physical exposure, Montgomery County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Montgomery County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1971, including 5 for snowstorm events and 5 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 24 Maryland counties, Montgomery County ranks #4 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | Very High | 12.06 / yr | $2M |
| Heat Wave | High | 5.26 / yr | $11M |
| Strong Wind | High | 8.21 / yr | $4M |
| Hail | High | 3.97 / yr | $3M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 5.46 / yr | $71M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $8M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.10 / yr | $12M |
| Lightning | High | 39.20 / yr | $2M |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.63 / yr | $6M |
| Drought | Medium | 4.04 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.38 / yr | $4M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.45 / yr | $11K |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.63 / yr | $266K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $13K |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $218 |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Montgomery County has received 21 federal disaster declarations since 1971, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Snowstorm (5), Hurricane (5), Severe Storm (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| November 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| August 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| May 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
| February 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
Showing the 10 most recent of 21 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Montgomery County?
Montgomery County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 91.7 out of 100, placing it in the Medium category and the 92th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Montgomery County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (Very High, $2M EAL), Heat Wave (High, $11M EAL), Strong Wind (High, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Montgomery County compare to other Maryland counties?
Montgomery County ranks #4 of 24 Maryland counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a medium rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Montgomery County had?
FEMA records 21 federal disaster declarations for Montgomery County since 1971, most often 5 for snowstorm events and 5 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Montgomery County's $126M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.