Frederick County, Maryland Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MD
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 74th
Frederick County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 74.2, 74th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $50M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Frederick County carries a low composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 74.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 74th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $645K in expected annual loss and about 14.32 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $3M in expected annual loss and about 4.21 events per year; and lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 37.30 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $50M in expected annual loss for a population of 271K.
Beyond physical exposure, Frederick County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Frederick County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1971, including 6 for hurricane events and 5 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 24 Maryland counties, Frederick County ranks #6 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 14.32 / yr | $645K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 4.21 / yr | $3M |
| Lightning | High | 37.30 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 4.68 / yr | $32M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 7.70 / yr | $2M |
| Hurricane | Low | 0.09 / yr | $3M |
| Hail | Medium | 3.78 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 3.97 / yr | $898K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.45 / yr | $3M |
| Landslide | Low | 0.61 / yr | $7K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.00 / yr | $151K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.79 / yr | $710K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $19K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $66 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Frederick County has received 23 federal disaster declarations since 1971, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (6), Snowstorm (5), Flood (5).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| June 2018 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Flooding |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| November 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| May 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
| September 2005 | Hurricane | Hurricane Katrina Evacuation |
Showing the 10 most recent of 23 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Frederick County?
Frederick County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 74.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 74th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Frederick County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $645K EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $3M EAL), Lightning (High, $1M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Frederick County compare to other Maryland counties?
Frederick County ranks #6 of 24 Maryland counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Frederick County had?
FEMA records 23 federal disaster declarations for Frederick County since 1971, most often 6 for hurricane events and 5 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Frederick County's $50M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.