Baltimore City, Maryland Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MD
HighComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 95th
Baltimore City faces high composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 95.0, 95th national percentile), driven primarily by heat wave and winter weather exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $136M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Baltimore City carries a high composite natural disaster risk, with a National Risk Index score of 95.0 out of 100 — placing it in the 95th national percentile and in the upper tier of natural-disaster risk nationally. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Most of Baltimore City's expected losses come from heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at High risk — $38M in expected annual loss and about 6.80 events per year; winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Very High risk — $944K in expected annual loss and about 10.83 events per year; and cold wave (prolonged spells of dangerously low temperatures) at High risk — $12M in expected annual loss and about 1.50 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $136M in expected annual loss for a population of 586K.
Beyond physical exposure, Baltimore City has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). Higher vulnerability is partly offset by strong community resilience and recovery capacity.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Baltimore City has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1971, including 6 for snowstorm events and 6 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 24 Maryland counties, Baltimore City ranks #1 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Heat Wave | High | 6.80 / yr | $38M |
| Winter Weather | Very High | 10.83 / yr | $944K |
| Cold Wave | High | 1.50 / yr | $12M |
| Strong Wind | High | 8.13 / yr | $3M |
| Tornado | High | 0.07 / yr | $10M |
| Riverine Flood | High | 1.89 / yr | $52M |
| Earthquake | Medium | 0.00 / yr | $7M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.10 / yr | $10M |
| Lightning | High | 38.66 / yr | $1M |
| Hail | Medium | 3.60 / yr | $1M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.95 / yr | $248K |
| Coastal Flood | Medium | 3.69 / yr | $559K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.04 / yr | $371 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $8K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Drought | Very Low | 6.12 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Baltimore City has received 22 federal disaster declarations since 1971, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Snowstorm (6), Hurricane (6), Severe Storm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| November 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| August 2012 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms and Straight-Line Winds |
| September 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| May 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 22 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Baltimore City?
Baltimore City has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 95.0 out of 100, placing it in the High category and the 95th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Baltimore City?
The three highest-rated hazards are Heat Wave (High, $38M EAL), Winter Weather (Very High, $944K EAL), Cold Wave (High, $12M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Baltimore City compare to other Maryland counties?
Baltimore City ranks #1 of 24 Maryland counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a high rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Baltimore City had?
FEMA records 22 federal disaster declarations for Baltimore City since 1971, most often 6 for snowstorm events and 6 for hurricane events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Baltimore City's $136M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.