Harford County, Maryland Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · MD
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 72th
Harford County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 72.5, 72th national percentile), driven primarily by winter weather and heat wave exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $51M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
FEMA's National Risk Index rates Harford County at low composite risk, with a National Risk Index score of 72.5 out of 100 — placing it in the 72nd national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at High risk — $976K in expected annual loss and about 12.73 events per year; heat wave (prolonged periods of extreme heat that threaten health and infrastructure) at Medium risk — $5M in expected annual loss and about 5.04 events per year; and hurricane (tropical cyclones bringing extreme wind, rain, and storm surge) at Medium risk — $4M in expected annual loss and about 0.08 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $51M in expected annual loss for a population of 261K.
Beyond physical exposure, Harford County has a very low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The federal record bears this out: Harford County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1971, including 7 for hurricane events and 6 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 24 Maryland counties, Harford County ranks #7 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Winter Weather | High | 12.73 / yr | $976K |
| Heat Wave | Medium | 5.04 / yr | $5M |
| Hurricane | Medium | 0.08 / yr | $4M |
| Lightning | Medium | 36.29 / yr | $1M |
| Riverine Flood | Medium | 2.89 / yr | $30M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 7.45 / yr | $2M |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $2M |
| Drought | Medium | 6.50 / yr | $994K |
| Cold Wave | Medium | 1.60 / yr | $3M |
| Ice Storm | Low | 1.15 / yr | $180K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.26 / yr | $2K |
| Coastal Flood | Low | 3.70 / yr | $109K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.35 / yr | $1M |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $12K |
| Hail | Very Low | 3.01 / yr | $54K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $3 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Harford County has received 20 federal disaster declarations since 1971, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Hurricane (7), Snowstorm (6), Flood (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| March 2016 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storm and Snowstorm |
| November 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2012 | Hurricane | Hurricane Sandy |
| October 2011 | Flood | Remnants of Tropical Storm Lee |
| September 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| August 2011 | Hurricane | Hurricane Irene |
| May 2010 | Snowstorm | Severe Winter Storms and Snowstorms |
Showing the 10 most recent of 20 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Harford County?
Harford County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 72.5 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 72th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Harford County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Winter Weather (High, $976K EAL), Heat Wave (Medium, $5M EAL), Hurricane (Medium, $4M EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Harford County compare to other Maryland counties?
Harford County ranks #7 of 24 Maryland counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Harford County had?
FEMA records 20 federal disaster declarations for Harford County since 1971, most often 7 for hurricane events and 6 for snowstorm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Harford County's $51M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.