Nelson County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 55th
Nelson County faces low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 55.2, 55th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and lightning exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $20M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Nelson County is low, with a National Risk Index score of 55.2 out of 100 — placing it in the 55th national percentile and below the national average for natural-disaster risk. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at High risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 7.02 events per year; lightning (electrical discharges from storms that ignite fires and cause casualties) at High risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 52.38 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $178K in expected annual loss and about 9.63 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $20M in expected annual loss for a population of 47K.
Beyond physical exposure, Nelson County has a low social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a very high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: Nelson County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 10 for severe storm events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Nelson County ranks #37 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | High | 7.02 / yr | $2M |
| Lightning | High | 52.38 / yr | $1M |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 9.63 / yr | $178K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.00 / yr | $875K |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.29 / yr | $3M |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.11 / yr | $2M |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.50 / yr | $11M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.98 / yr | $153K |
| Heat Wave | Low | 4.58 / yr | $315K |
| Hail | Low | 3.40 / yr | $195K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.56 / yr | $644 |
| Drought | Low | 1.57 / yr | $34K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.02 / yr | $11K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $11K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Nelson County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Severe Ice Storm (3), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Mudslides, and Tornadoes |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Nelson County?
Nelson County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 55.2 out of 100, placing it in the Low category and the 55th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Nelson County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (High, $2M EAL), Lightning (High, $1M EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $178K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Nelson County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Nelson County ranks #37 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Nelson County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for Nelson County since 1970, most often 10 for severe storm events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Nelson County's $20M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.