Mercer County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 41th
Mercer County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 41.4, 41th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and tornado exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $12M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Mercer County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 41.4 out of 100 — placing it in the 41st national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $1M in expected annual loss and about 7.31 events per year; tornado (violently rotating columns of air capable of catastrophic local damage) at Medium risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.16 events per year; and ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at Medium risk — $140K in expected annual loss and about 0.88 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $12M in expected annual loss for a population of 23K.
Beyond physical exposure, Mercer County has a medium social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a high community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). A less vulnerable population paired with strong resilience helps the community absorb and recover from events.
History supports the rating: Mercer County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1974, including 11 for severe storm events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Mercer County ranks #55 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | Medium | 7.31 / yr | $1M |
| Tornado | Medium | 0.16 / yr | $2M |
| Ice Storm | Medium | 0.88 / yr | $140K |
| Hail | Low | 3.48 / yr | $346K |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $390K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 10.42 / yr | $78K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.79 / yr | $7M |
| Lightning | Low | 52.15 / yr | $214K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 1.05 / yr | $653K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $17K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.31 / yr | $309 |
| Drought | Very Low | 2.32 / yr | $18K |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.89 / yr | $103K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $3K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Mercer County has received 25 federal disaster declarations since 1974, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (11), Severe Ice Storm (3), Snowstorm (3).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| May 2011 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| May 2010 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Flooding, Mudslides, and Tornadoes |
Showing the 10 most recent of 25 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Mercer County?
Mercer County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 41.4 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 41th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Mercer County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Medium, $1M EAL), Tornado (Medium, $2M EAL), Ice Storm (Medium, $140K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Mercer County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Mercer County ranks #55 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Mercer County had?
FEMA records 25 federal disaster declarations for Mercer County since 1974, most often 11 for severe storm events and 3 for severe ice storm events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Mercer County's $12M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.