McLean County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 41th
McLean County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 40.7, 41th national percentile), driven primarily by ice storm and earthquake exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $9M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in McLean County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 40.7 out of 100 — placing it in the 41st national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
Risk here concentrates in ice storm (freezing rain that coats surfaces in heavy, damaging ice) at High risk — $492K in expected annual loss and about 1.43 events per year; earthquake (ground shaking from sudden movement along geologic faults) at Low risk — $2M in expected annual loss and about 0.01 events per year; and strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $732K in expected annual loss and about 4.60 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $9M in expected annual loss for a population of 9K.
Beyond physical exposure, McLean County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
The county's disaster history tells the same story: McLean County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1989, including 14 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, McLean County ranks #58 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Ice Storm | High | 1.43 / yr | $492K |
| Earthquake | Low | 0.01 / yr | $2M |
| Strong Wind | Medium | 4.60 / yr | $732K |
| Drought | Medium | 5.79 / yr | $392K |
| Hail | Low | 2.92 / yr | $345K |
| Winter Weather | Low | 7.79 / yr | $53K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 2.25 / yr | $4M |
| Heat Wave | Low | 8.26 / yr | $219K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.19 / yr | $567K |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.01 / yr | $8K |
| Cold Wave | Very Low | 0.95 / yr | $216K |
| Lightning | Very Low | 53.36 / yr | $47K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.19 / yr | $66 |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $1K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
McLean County has received 24 federal disaster declarations since 1989, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (14), Biological (2), Flood (2).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| July 2024 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
| April 2018 | Flood | Severe Storms, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
Showing the 10 most recent of 24 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for McLean County?
McLean County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 40.7 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 41th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in McLean County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Ice Storm (High, $492K EAL), Earthquake (Low, $2M EAL), Strong Wind (Medium, $732K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does McLean County compare to other Kentucky counties?
McLean County ranks #58 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has McLean County had?
FEMA records 24 federal disaster declarations for McLean County since 1989, most often 14 for severe storm events and 2 for biological events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. McLean County's $9M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.