Lincoln County, Kentucky Natural Disaster Risk
FEMA National Risk Index assessment · KY
Very LowComposite Risk Score
National percentile: 33th
Lincoln County faces very low composite natural disaster risk (NRI Risk Index score 32.6, 33th national percentile), driven primarily by strong wind and hail exposure. Expected annual loss across all 18 hazard types is $8M.
Source: FEMA National Risk Index v1.20 · Updated December 2025
Risk Overview
Overall natural disaster risk in Lincoln County is very low, with a National Risk Index score of 32.6 out of 100 — placing it in the 33rd national percentile and among the lowest-risk counties in the country. The score blends Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across all 18 FEMA hazard types.
The county's risk is driven primarily by strong wind (damaging straight-line winds outside of tornadoes and hurricanes) at Medium risk — $892K in expected annual loss and about 6.40 events per year; hail (ice stones from severe thunderstorms that damage property and crops) at Low risk — $444K in expected annual loss and about 3.26 events per year; and winter weather (heavy snow, blizzards, and hazardous winter conditions) at Medium risk — $81K in expected annual loss and about 9.32 events per year. Across all hazards, FEMA estimates $8M in expected annual loss for a population of 24K.
Beyond physical exposure, Lincoln County has a high social vulnerability rating (how susceptible the population is to harm) and a medium community resilience rating (its capacity to prepare for and recover from disasters). That combination — a more vulnerable population with limited resilience — can amplify the human cost of any given event.
History supports the rating: Lincoln County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1970, including 10 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm (winter storm), declared in January 2026.
Among 120 Kentucky counties, Lincoln County ranks #76 for overall natural disaster risk.
Top Hazards
All 18 Hazard Risks
| Strong Wind | Medium | 6.40 / yr | $892K |
| Hail | Low | 3.26 / yr | $444K |
| Winter Weather | Medium | 9.32 / yr | $81K |
| Cold Wave | Low | 0.95 / yr | $1M |
| Earthquake | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $318K |
| Ice Storm | Low | 0.62 / yr | $87K |
| Lightning | Low | 52.71 / yr | $181K |
| Riverine Flood | Low | 0.86 / yr | $4M |
| Hurricane | Very Low | 0.03 / yr | $29K |
| Tornado | Low | 0.16 / yr | $671K |
| Landslide | Very Low | 0.48 / yr | $381 |
| Heat Wave | Very Low | 2.53 / yr | $147K |
| Drought | Very Low | 5.46 / yr | $22K |
| Wildfire | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $8K |
| Avalanche | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Coastal Flood | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Tsunami | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
| Volcanic Activity | Very Low | 0.00 / yr | $0 |
Disaster History
Lincoln County has received 28 federal disaster declarations since 1970, most recently Severe Winter Storm in January 2026. Most frequent causes: Severe Storm (10), Flood (6), Snowstorm (4).
| Declared | Type | Disaster |
|---|---|---|
| January 2026 | Winter Storm | Severe Winter Storm |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, and Flooding |
| February 2025 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Flooding, and Landslides |
| April 2023 | Severe Storm | Severe Storms, Straight-Line Winds, Tornadoes, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| July 2022 | Flood | Severe Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| April 2021 | Flood | Severe, Storms, Flooding, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2021 | Severe Ice Storm | Severe Winter Storms, Landslides, and Mudslides |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 Pandemic |
| March 2020 | Biological | Covid-19 |
Showing the 10 most recent of 28 declarations.
Source: FEMA Disaster Declarations Summaries (OpenFEMA).
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the overall natural disaster risk for Lincoln County?
Lincoln County has a composite FEMA National Risk Index score of 32.6 out of 100, placing it in the Very Low category and the 33th national percentile. This combines Expected Annual Loss, Social Vulnerability, and Community Resilience across 18 hazard types.
What are the top natural hazards in Lincoln County?
The three highest-rated hazards are Strong Wind (Medium, $892K EAL), Hail (Low, $444K EAL), Winter Weather (Medium, $81K EAL). These account for most of the county's expected annual losses.
How does Lincoln County compare to other Kentucky counties?
Lincoln County ranks #76 of 120 Kentucky counties for overall natural disaster risk, with a very low rating.
How many federally declared disasters has Lincoln County had?
FEMA records 28 federal disaster declarations for Lincoln County since 1970, most often 10 for severe storm events and 6 for flood events. The most recent was Severe Winter Storm, declared in January 2026.
What does Expected Annual Loss (EAL) mean?
EAL is FEMA's estimate of average annual dollar losses from natural hazards, calculated from historical event data and exposure models. Lincoln County's $8M EAL is a statistical average, not a guarantee for any specific year or address.